Is terrorism really the reason that Saudi Arabia and others are breaking diplomatic ties with Qatar or is there a deeper political reason?
I would suggest that the real story behind this “diplomatic” issue is the increasing insecurity and paranoia Click Here within the Saudi ruling family over Qatar’s support of groups that the Saudis perceive as potential threats to their long term survival.
For the Saudis to accuse Qatar of supporting terrorists is the height of hypocrisy.
Image source : https://www.qatarliving.com/forum/socialising/posts/best-recruitment-agency-qatar-updated-you-must-see-it-here
Qatar has chosen to put its money behind rebel factions, in support of the Arab Spring, that they believed would be elected in democratic elections should they be held. We may not like the Muslim Brotherhood, for instance, but Mohammed Morsi Visit Here was democratically elected in Egypt and Qatar has been a long time supporter of this group.
They have also tried to improve relations with Iran, an avowed enemy of the Saudi royal family, and supposedly recently paid certain groups within Iran close to a billion dollars ostensibly to get back members of the Qatarian royal family who were taken hostage while on a hunting trip across the Iranian border.
Why did they do this when Qatar is a monarchy itself and would have a lot to lose if democracy broke out within their borders? Probably because they see the writing on the wall and want to try and buy some good will in case these rebels and their “democratic” movements do indeed take over the region.
The Saudis, on the other hand, want nothing to do with Arab style democracy because they know they are not liked by the people behind those movements and the most likely people to be elected in early elections are extremist leaders of factions that would be anathema to both the Saudi royals and the US.
Furthermore, if democracy gained any sort of foothold in the KSA this would require greater liberalization and that would anger the conservative Wahabbist clerics who keep the more extreme religious factions at bay who want to see the royal family gone.
The Saudis have never seen a Sunni insurgency they did not like and throw money at, that is until ISIS turned against them. They have provided financial support for Al Qaeda. their offshoot Al-Nusra, and they were an early financial supporter of ISIS. As long as these rebels were killing Shia muslims they were content.
But now the KSA has a serious problem. They know their financial resources will not last forever but they are spending money like it was water trying to bribe their own population to stay content (thus the upcoming Aramco IPO) while also trying to finance numerous proxy wars along with a current war in Yemen that has turned into their version of Vietnam.
Now the KSA finds itself with the potential for trouble brewing within their borders within the next few years and a sworn enemy to its north in Iran which is making strong inroads into Iraq (also dominant Shia) and Syria (Assad is an Alawite Shia). Now they have another enemy to their south in Yemen.
And then there is the wild card of ISIS. If Saudi finances deteriorate to the point that in order to placate their people they have to relax some of their strict restrictions will this anger the Wahhabi clerics enough to drive them to bring ISIS into Saudi borders to preserve the purity of the faith by eliminating the royals and established a pure theocracy in league with ISIS? This is a real possibility.
So what is the real story? The Saudi royals are scared. And they don’t want a wealthy neighbor providing aid and support to enemies that would take their heads if given half a chance.
